15 Russian divisions in Belarus: an expert discusses whether there is a threat of an offensive against Kyiv and NATO (video).

The Russian army, although preparing 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers and transferring them to Belarus, lacks the strength to threaten Kyiv, as well as the Baltic States and Poland. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has mentioned the possibility of an offensive by the Russian Federation, he has not warned Ukrainians. Military expert Mikhail Zhirohov explained the situation at Ukraine's northern border near the Kyiv region to media outlet NV.

Zhirohov clarified that when assessing the threat to Kyiv, one should take into account the experience of the Russian offensive in 2022 and the situation on the front in 2025. In his view, the accumulation of a contingent of 100,000 to 150,000 Russian Armed Forces soldiers is clearly insufficient for a new attack. This is evidenced by the Kremlin's failure in the first weeks of the invasion, he believes. Furthermore, there is currently a noticeable lack of armored vehicles and personnel on the front lines. The expert noted that during the fighting in Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine "ground down" the elite Russian troops, as well as former prisoners among the mobilized. In his opinion, Zelensky's statement indicates not a threat to Kyiv but rather a need to find arguments for continued European assistance.

"I attribute this to our political leadership trying to find some arguments for Europe to continue supporting Ukraine. Therefore, we shouldn't expect that former 'prisoners' and mobilized individuals will have the capacity to launch a full-scale offensive on Kyiv," the expert stated.

The interlocutor of NV also suggested paying attention to the slow and difficult advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region. Ultimately, he assured that a new offensive by the Russians does not pose a threat to Kyiv.

"I don't think Russia is capable of executing such a strategic operation in the near future. That is in the realm of fantasy," Zhirohov said.

Details of the RF Offensive

It is worth noting that on February 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference the presence of 15 divisions of Russian soldiers totaling 150,000, who are being prepared for transfer to Belarus. The President explained that this is how the head of the Kremlin threatens Europe, NATO countries—Poland, the Baltic States, or even Kyiv. Considering this, the politician suggested that Europeans create their own army for protection against the aggressor.

Meanwhile, in December 2024, Newsweek investigated possible directions for a new RF offensive. One of the directions is the Baltic States, particularly Lithuania, which is at risk as it borders both Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. Additionally, the main part of Russia and Kaliningrad are connected by the Suwalki Corridor, and the Kremlin is interested in ensuring that this is not a thin thread but full control. Furthermore, in December 2023, Bild journalists, citing sources in intelligence, reported that RF is preparing to attack Europe in the winter of 2024 or in 2025.

We remind you that while the Russian army is preparing a new hundred-thousand-strong force, a meeting of US and RF delegations is taking place in Saudi Arabia, aimed at "resetting" relations between the two countries.