"Can Trump and Xi Jinping tame Putin and accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine?"

U.S. President Donald Trump highlights Kyiv's readiness for a "deal" to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, but notes that "it takes two to tango." Therefore, he is sending signals to China to join forces and persuade Vladimir Putin towards a peaceful resolution, which, by the way, Putin stated today that he is open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration.

The implications of Trump's statements and whether they, along with Xi Jinping, can pressure Putin to expedite the end of the war are explored in RBK-Ukraine.

Does Trump seek China's assistance? What we know

Yesterday, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the U.S. president was asked if he would achieve peace for Ukraine within the year. "This question should be directed at Russia, because Ukraine is ready," - Trump replied.

He is no longer making bold promises to end the war in 24 hours. His team and special envoy Kit Kellogg are tasked with this job within a 100-day timeframe. According to the president's logic, one of the first steps should be a phone call with Putin. However, that initial contact has yet to occur.

If a hypothetical peace process is progressing, it is not moving as quickly as Trump anticipated. He is now counting on the help of Chinese President Xi Jinping, with whom he spoke before the inauguration.

"We hope that China will help us stop the war between Ukraine and Russia. I mentioned this, by the way, during my phone call with President Xi. I hope we can join forces and put an end to this (the Russian-Ukrainian war, - ed.)," - he stated in Davos.

Photo: Donald Trump is counting on China's help to end the war in Ukraine (Getty Images)

The potential role of China as a peacemaker is also discussed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Despite previously calling the "peace proposals" from two years ago (for a freeze on the conflict without any guarantees) destructive and indicating that China's support for Russian exports only prolongs the war.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Zelensky stated that he is trying to persuade China to use its influence over Russia. However, he noted that he does not speak with Xi Jinping as often as he would like. The only phone call between the leaders took place back in the spring of 2023.

"I am confident that he can push Putin towards peace. President Trump is the strongest, and so is Xi Jinping. I believe there is no one else who can realistically do this. Putin is heavily dependent on China," - he added.

Russia will not withstand a pro-Ukrainian alliance if China changes its position, believes Mikhail Podolyak, advisor to the head of the President's Office. In a comment to the YouTube channel RBK-Ukraine, he explained that Putin views Xi as a superior, and only informal support from Beijing allows the Kremlin dictator to remain a geopolitical player.

As for China itself, it claims to have a supposedly neutral position, calling for a peaceful resolution through negotiations. At the same time, it expands economic ties with the Russian Federation and does not condemn its military aggression against Ukraine. Responding to Trump's appeal, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning confirmed Beijing's readiness to facilitate negotiations and maintain communication with all parties, in their usual manner.

With his address, Trump acknowledges: his efforts may not be enough to compel Putin to negotiate an end to the war. Other Western politicians have also made statements regarding China's possible role. However, their expectations, like those of Ukraine, may be overly optimistic, according to Vladimir Fesenko, head of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta."

"From personal interactions with Chinese diplomats, I know that this even irritates them a bit. They usually say that China is for peace, but cannot force Putin to stop the war. Of course, there is some duplicity here. Despite the fact that the war itself creates certain problems, China enjoys watching Russia's dependence on it grow and the West weaken," - he told RBK-Ukraine.

Trump's "Chinese" policy and the topic of the war in Ukraine

Trump's second term is starting off favorably for China. He refrains from high tariffs, sending a signal that there can be "very good relations" between the countries, and has expressed interest in visiting Beijing. Additionally, he recently granted a 75-day extension for TikTok and indicated that he would work on a deal allowing the media platform to operate in the U.S.

All of this suggests that, at least for now, he is willing to engage in dialogue with China. And this is great news for them. The stakes are high for Beijing, as a "tit for tat" trade war, similar to the one during Trump's first term, could hit at the most inconvenient time, as the Chinese economy is experiencing a downturn.

During a phone call on January 17, Xi Jinping urged the U.S. president to establish a "new starting point" in relations. However, in China, there are no illusions and they are calculating how to leverage the current thaw for negotiations with Trump.

One of his first decisions was an order to review America's economic relations. The situation in trade with China could become part of that. Research results will determine whether the U.S. will impose tariffs. The entire process could take several months, giving China time to build bridges with the new administration or secure a preemptive deal to avoid more serious sanctions.

Photo: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the brink of a possible "new starting point" in relations (Getty Images)

"China understands that it can negotiate with Trump, but this is a different, new Trump - what we achieved last time may not satisfy his new desires. This time, instead of forcing him into a trade war, it would be better for Beijing to smile, keep calm, and start a conversation," - quotes CNN Shanghai international relations analyst Shen Dingli.

10% tariffs on imports may be introduced as early as February as a retaliatory measure for what Trump calls the role of Chinese suppliers in the drug crisis due to fentanyl flows. But this is far from the 60% tariffs he threatened before the elections. To appease Trump, China might, for instance, expand access for American companies to its market and take measures against the export of chemical precursors used in fentanyl production.

However, there is a limit to how much China can bend to Trump. "The main thing is to respect each other's core interests," - stated Xi Jinping after his conversation with him last week, mentioning the situation regarding Taiwan.

In an interview with Fox News, Trump said he would prefer not to use tariffs against China, but called them "a huge advantage," essentially not fully renouncing his previous threats. Nothing has changed in the relations between the countries; mutual threats remain the same, emphasizes Alexander Kraev, an expert at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council.

"Despite Trump calling Xi a good friend with whom they can achieve a lot, the desire for a trade war and confrontation is not going anywhere. If he is not ready to exclude the tool of sanctions, it seems to me that the antipathy between them could intensify," - he told RBK-Ukraine.

Any deals will be reached against the backdrop of competition for technological and military dominance, struggles for regional interests in Asia, and so on. At the same time, efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian war could also become a "bargaining chip" in negotiations between the U.S. and China, writes CNN.

Vladimir Fesenko does not rule out that this issue will be a topic of bilateral contacts if Trump and Xi Jinping enter negotiations concerning trade and political relations. However, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian issue will become central.

"So far, there is not even a hint of this. But if the parties suddenly begin to negotiate not about dividing the world, but about spheres of influence and finding balances, some broad political agreements may emerge regarding Ukraine. But this is still an idealistic scenario," - the political scientist added.

Will Xi Jinping agree to pressure Putin?

Over the past two and a half months, Trump and Xi Jinping have repeatedly discussed Russia's war against Ukraine. The conversation on January 17 was the only one officially announced. However, sources from Nikkei Asia claim that exchanges of opinions have occurred much more frequently.

In particular, when on December