Thursday07 November 2024
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A political analyst discussed whether elections will take place in Ukraine and under what conditions they might occur.

A political analyst discussed whether elections will take place in Ukraine and under what conditions.
Политолог объяснил, состоятся ли выборы в Украине и какие условия для этого необходимы.
Политолог рассказал будут ли выборы в Украине и при каких условиях

A political scientist discussed whether elections will be held in Ukraine and under what conditions.

Political expert Vladimir Fesenko expresses significant doubts about the possibility of elections taking place in the spring of 2025, emphasizing that he does not see any real signs of their preparation.

He shared this information with journalists from TSN.

It has been noted that discussions about the potential for elections in Ukraine in the spring of 2025 have resurfaced online. Allegedly, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has already prepared a voter registry and is planning for all possible risks.

People are also talking about a surge in activity among regional politicians, who are supposedly seeking to recruit well-known military figures for their teams.

However, reports do not specify which elections are being referred to: local, parliamentary, or presidential.

Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko questions the likelihood of elections taking place in the spring of 2025.

"How can the CEC have already prepared a voter registry when millions of our citizens are currently abroad? The CEC is trying to update the voter registry, but it has only just begun its work, and it is still unclear when it will finish, as doing this during wartime is extremely challenging. Those who are very eager for the elections or very fearful of them are the ones talking about spring 2025 elections," Fesenko explains.

He suggests that rumors about the potential for elections may be spread by those involved in their preparation in Ukraine, as it is their job and a source of income.

"In the next six months, and also in the spring of 2025, there will be no elections in Ukraine. I will provide two arguments regarding this. First, for elections to take place, the war must end or a ceasefire agreement must be signed. As long as there is war, any elections are impossible, no matter how much some may wish for them. Second, we are currently absolutely unprepared for the electoral process, both organizationally and financially," the political scientist explains.

Vladimir Fesenko notes that it is only possible to talk about the potential for elections when certain indicators appear, signaling that they will indeed occur.
"The first sign is that funds must be allocated for the elections, which requires amendments to the state budget to include appropriate financing. Previously, it was mentioned that around 5 billion hryvnias would be needed, but now various estimates suggest approximately 10 billion hryvnias. However, the draft budget for next year does not allocate money for elections," the political scientist explains.

According to Fesenko, the second indicator for holding elections is changes in electoral legislation, which are also not currently observed.

"So far, there are no circumstances indicating that any changes have been prepared to the electoral legislation concerning parliamentary or presidential elections," emphasizes Vladimir Fesenko.

The political scientist adds that it is crucial to first determine the voting mechanism. For example, how will approximately three million Ukrainian voters residing abroad cast their votes? This is why work has begun on updating the voter registry.

"The work on restoring the registry is extremely important because, due to the war, millions of voters have changed their place of residence. Without an up-to-date registry, conducting elections is impossible. This is why the process of its restoration needs to begin in advance. If the need arises to hold elections after the war ends, we will not be ready without an updated registry," notes Vladimir Fesenko.

The political scientist adds that when all these issues are resolved and all legislative matters are approved, then it will be possible to say that preparations for the elections have begun.

"For elections to take place in the spring of 2025, all these decisions need to be made no later than the end of this year. If this can be achieved, then elections may occur at the end of March 2025," emphasizes Vladimir Fesenko.

The political scientist stresses that as long as the war continues and martial law is in effect, elections in Ukraine are impossible. For them to occur, changes to the legislation must be made.
"If an initiative emerges suggesting that such changes need to be made, that will signal that preparations for the elections have begun. However, do not forget that in such a case, the electoral legislation also needs to be updated and adapted to wartime conditions. This will not be easy," concludes the political scientist.

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