The NBU has released its macroeconomic forecast for the years 2025-2027.

The National Bank of Ukraine has released an updated macroeconomic forecast for the years 2025–2027.

This is mentioned in the NBU's press release.

It is anticipated that inflation will likely continue to rise in the early months of 2025, reaching its peak in the second quarter before starting to decline mid-year. According to the NBU, by the end of 2025, inflation is expected to slow down to 8.4%, and in 2026, it should reach the target of 5%.

Factors contributing to this include the NBU's measures on interest and exchange rate policy, higher crop yields, improvements in the energy sector, a reduction in the fiscal deficit, and moderate external price pressures.

It is emphasized that the economic recovery will continue, although it will be limited due to the consequences of the war.

According to NBU estimates, Ukraine's real GDP is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2024, which is lower than the October forecast from the NBU. Taking into account security risks and the labor market situation, the NBU has revised its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 3.6%. Meanwhile, moderate acceleration of economic growth to about 4% is expected in 2026-2027.

It is noted that international support will be sufficient for non-emission financing of the budget deficit and maintaining a stable situation in the foreign exchange market.

It is expected that in 2025, Ukraine will receive $38.4 billion in external financing.

At the same time, the national bank will continue to take measures to protect hryvnia savings from inflationary depreciation, which will help reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. As stated in the press release, the NBU will be able to compensate for the structural currency deficit in the private sector and smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations.

It is clarified that this will help maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market under a managed exchange rate flexibility regime, which will align with achieving the inflation target of 5% over the policy horizon.

The NBU added that the ongoing large-scale war remains a key risk to inflation dynamics and economic development.

"There are also risks related to the irregularity of international assistance and less favorable external economic trends than currently expected, particularly due to greater geopolitical polarization among countries and corresponding fragmentation of global trade. However, positive scenarios may also materialize, primarily related to increased financial support from partners (including through the use of the principal amount of immobilized Russian assets to compensate for Ukraine's losses) and the efforts of the international community to ensure a fair and lasting peace for Ukraine," the NBU emphasized.

Background. Earlier, Mind reported that the national bank raised the discount rate to 14.5%. The NBU's macroeconomic forecast anticipates further increases in the discount rate to curb inflation.