The National Bank of Ukraine anticipates an increase in utility rates starting in 2026.

According to the National Bank's forecast, utility service tariffs will remain unchanged throughout 2025; however, this does not rule out potential increases starting next year.

This is mentioned in the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank.

“The forecast is based on the assumption that certain utility service tariffs (gas, heating, and hot water supply) will remain unchanged in 2025. However, the challenging situation in the energy sector and the state budget may lead to tariff adjustments in the coming years. It is anticipated that a gradual alignment of tariffs to economically justified levels may begin in 2026,” the report states.

It is noted that uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of adjustments to energy tariffs poses a specific risk to the inflation forecast. A significant increase in energy resource costs aimed at quickly addressing imbalances in the energy sector will intensify inflationary pressure and create a need for increased subsidies for the population.

“On the other hand, prolonged delays in decisions regarding the adjustment of utility service tariffs to economically justified levels will result in lower inflation rates but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state energy companies,” the NBU added.

It is emphasized that this will create additional risks for the sector's investment potential, exacerbate instability risks in the energy market, and the price pressure will only be deferred to the future.

Background. Previously, Mind reported that the established electricity tariff will be in effect throughout the current heating season, and there are no plans for an increase.