Climate war: Ukraine's second front. Key actions needed to prevent an environmental disaster.

On October 8, 2024, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the long-awaited climate law, which establishes the foundations of the state climate policy and aims to achieve carbon neutrality for Ukraine by 2050. Why is this law so significant, and how do climate issues affect each of us? Let's explore this in the analysis.

Over the past few decades, even those who are not directly interested in global politics have undoubtedly heard about climate change and global warming. However, for many, especially in light of the tragic events in our country, this issue understandably has not been a priority. The lack of accessible information for non-specialists on this topic is another factor contributing to the low interest in this problem among the general population.

It became clear in the 1980s that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated from the combustion of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—primarily CO2 (carbon dioxide), cause global warming. Over the last few decades, the international community has implemented several agreements and mechanisms aimed at reducing industrial GHG emissions, such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. However, issues with ratification by the countries with the highest emissions (the USA, Russia) and the lack of specific limits for major developing ratifying countries (China, India, Brazil) have led to global emissions not only failing to decrease but actually increasing, accelerating the pace of global warming and resulting in a staggering number of catastrophic climate events worldwide.

In 2015, the signatory countries of the UNFCCC, gathering for the next Conference of the Parties in Paris, recognized that simply reducing GHG emissions would no longer halt the rapid global warming projected to reach +4°C by the end of this century. Therefore, the only way to save humanity is to completely halt net GHG emissions and keep the global temperature increase below +2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

Countries that ratified the Paris Climate Agreement (PCA) committed to achieving complete emission reductions and climate neutrality by 2050. The term "climate neutrality" means that the balance of GHG emissions into the atmosphere and their absorption will be zero. More specifically, this implies that the majority of such emissions will be minimized (for example, by phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to low-carbon technologies, such as renewable energy), while the remaining GHG emissions, from which it is technically impossible to eliminate, will be offset through carbon dioxide absorption technologies (for instance, by increasing green areas or implementing carbon capture and storage technologies in underground reservoirs and ocean depths).

In addition to directly reducing emissions, which mitigates climate change, the second requirement is known as adaptation—i.e., the implementation of projects that could withstand negative climate impacts. This includes, for example, disaster-resilient design for buildings, roads, bridges, dams, energy facilities, and so forth.

However, the technological aspect is only part of the plan, as the implementation of these commitments requires significant initial investments from countries, supported by regulatory requirements. Different countries have introduced specific sets of measures to achieve climate neutrality.

To fulfill commitments under the National Climate Strategy (NKS), in 2019, the European Union launched the so-called European Green Deal, which serves as a roadmap for transforming the EU into an efficient, sustainable, and competitive economy and the world's first climate-neutral continent by 2050. The European Commission has provided a robust financial support program for the green transition amounting to €1 trillion.

Regarding Ukraine specifically, it has ratified the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, under which it has implemented several joint projects aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions across various enterprises. The sale of GHG emission quotas obtained through emission savings brought 4 billion UAH to Ukraine's budget in 2010-2011.

In 2015, Ukraine was one of the first European countries to join the NKS. A roadmap was developed to fulfill its commitments, which included steps such as increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy sector; gradually closing coal mines alongside programs to transform coal regions and eventually phasing out fossil fuels; increasing forest areas; implementing energy efficiency measures in buildings; transitioning to electric transport; adopting sustainable agricultural and land-use practices; and improving waste management systems to reduce GHG emissions. Intermediate targets included a 65% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 and a complete phase-out of fossil fuels by 2035, ensuring that all energy needs were met through a 50-50 mix of renewable and nuclear energy. Ukraine began adapting its legislation in line with the European Green Deal, as joining this process could bring the country not only immediate benefits in mitigating climate change effects but also substantial financial inflows, given Ukraine's vast potential for green energy for both domestic needs and export. Moreover, it could gain access to grants and other financial support tools from the EU.

However, the ongoing full-scale military aggression has delayed these plans and further exacerbated negative environmental and climate impacts. During two years of active hostilities, over 5,500 instances of destructive environmental impact were recorded. Due to daily shelling and its aftermath, greenhouse gas emissions reached 175 million tons of carbon.

Despite all the challenges, Ukraine continues to adapt its environmental legislation to EU norms and standards, particularly in the context of fulfilling the Association Agreement with the EU.

The year 2024 has been marked by a series of important legislative acts. In March, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the Ukraine Plan necessary for implementing the EU initiative "Ukraine Facility," amounting to €50 billion over the 2024-2027 period. These EU funds will be directed toward financing the state budget, stimulating investments, and providing technical support for program implementation. In June, the Cabinet of Ministers also approved the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for the period until 2030. The NECP is a strategic document aimed at aligning environmental, energy, and economic policies for Ukraine's sustainable development. Finally, in October, the aforementioned climate law was adopted by the Verkhovna Rada, setting an even more ambitious goal for Ukraine—to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, instead of the previously announced plans for 2060.

A natural question that may arise for an ordinary citizen is where we can obtain the funds to implement these plans. Even before the onset of full-scale war, estimates from the National Bank of Ukraine indicated that investments needed for Ukraine to achieve its climate goals amounted to $102 billion. Now, this figure, considering the additional negative consequences caused by the war, is even higher.

However, a more relevant question would be what Ukraine stands to lose if it does not transition to a carbon-neutral and climate-resilient economy in the coming decades. Climate change and its catastrophic consequences, such as floods, droughts, land degradation, declining air and water quality, abnormal heat, wildfires, etc., could have negative impacts on Ukraine comparable to the destruction caused by prolonged warfare. This, in turn, could trigger losses of arable land, reduction of forest areas, scarcity of drinking water, excessive air pollution, and ultimately increase morbidity and mortality among the population. Even before the war, Ukraine had repeatedly suffered from floods in Transcarpathia, wildfires, and other natural disasters. In recent years, the increase in drought days has tripled the area of forest destruction in Ukraine due to fires. Last winter, we witnessed how an extraordinary wind force simply demolished the metal supports of a wind farm in the Odessa region. Thus, climate change inflicts multi-billion losses on all sectors of the economy, and therefore has a direct impact on the well-being and lives of each of us.

The war has exacerbated these impacts significantly, thus the response to them must be urgent. It is simply impossible to insulate ourselves from climate disasters with state borders. And this is not some apocalyptic scenario, but a very likely outcome if humanity does not halt the rise in temperature on our planet. That is why we should welcome the positive shifts occurring in Ukraine concerning the approach to mitigating and adapting to climate change. State policy and funding mechanisms must be implemented at all levels, and every Ukrainian enterprise should incorporate climate risk assessment and management into its business model to appropriately adapt to these changes and remain competitive. Undoubtedly, awareness and support for these processes among the general population is a crucial factor for the success of climate policy, which will allow us to build a green, energy-independent, and resilient country.

The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the position of the editorial board. The author bears responsibility for the published data in the "Opinions" section.