An alarming demographic crisis: Why Ukraine is set to lose millions of people in the coming years.

In Ukraine, there has long been a so-called "extraordinary demographic situation." This was the case even before the war.

I phrase it this way: if war is a national tragedy, then our demographics represent a national catastrophe.

However, even more alarming is society's attitude toward this issue.

Some argue in the vein of "fewer people means more oxygen." Others recall the example of sparsely populated Australia. Some claim that "it's the same worldwide."

This essentially indicates a deep-seated internal suicidality within a portion of our society.

Social suicidality reflects an inability to respond to the existential risks facing the nation as a cohesive, living, collective organism.

We indeed share one common phenomenon with EU countries — a fertility rate below 2.

For simple population replacement, a rate of 2.2 is necessary. In Europe, this figure, like ours, is below the critical two (in Ukraine, it's below one — 0.7).

However, this is only part of the demographic equation; such comparisons are inadequate.

Europe addresses its demographic challenges through labor migration from other countries.

France achieves this through the birth rates among migrants from Francafrique (which, admittedly, creates other social rather than demographic problems).

In China, the fertility rate is also below 2. However, there are 1.4 billion people in the country. Therefore, China's primary issue is an aging population, not its size.

Japan has a low birth rate, but with a population of 125 million, its economically active population is at a historic peak — over 60 million people.

How is this achieved?

By involving people over 65 in the labor force (more than 20% of the workforce).

This is made possible by Japan's unique increase in life expectancy: men live on average over 80 years, while women live even longer.

Thus, excluding countries like India, Pakistan, Jordan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and some African nations, nearly all others face birth rate issues, which is a natural consequence of the consumer society of the 21st century and female emancipation.

However, most countries have their own buffers against this problem.

There are three of them:

1. A initially large population for that territory. The issue arises with aging rather than numbers.
2. A dynamic flow of labor migrants attracted by high living standards and economic development.
3. Involvement of residents over 65 into the labor force due to increased life expectancy and good health (medicine, prevention, nutrition, etc.).

We do not have any of the aforementioned factors:

1. An initially large population of 53 million is now diminished.
2. No one is coming to us, nor will they in the future.
3. The average life expectancy for men in Ukraine has decreased from 64 to 57 years, and for women, from 75 to 70 years.

This means that only a small portion of the female population over 65 will live, and their health conditions will not allow them to work. Most men will not even reach the age of 65.

All of this catastrophically exacerbates the constant outflow of migrants from the country.

In the coming years, Ukraine will lose 300,000 residents due to negative population growth and 500,000 who will have left the country (net loss).

In total, this amounts to between 800,000 and 1 million residents per year.

These processes, if not halted, threaten the very existence of the nation.

And this is true even if the war were to cease.

The author expresses a personal opinion that may not align with the editorial stance. The author is responsible for the published data in the "Opinions" section.

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