Election outcomes in the U.S. hinge on seven states, determining who has the most support and where it comes from.

During the presidential elections in the United States, the outcome of the voting is typically determined by just a few key "swing" states. In the 2024 election, there are only seven such states.

RBK-Ukraine explains why these states are so crucial, as well as the ratings of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in them.

Why "swing" states are important in U.S. elections

The electoral system in the U.S. is quite unique. It consists of two stages. First, citizens vote for electors in their state. Then, the electors cast their votes for president.

To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure the votes of 270 out of 538 electors. The number of electors in each state varies based on population. In most states, Trump or Harris have a significant advantage over their opponent. However, there are states where voter preferences shift from election to election. These states are referred to as "swing" states.

In the 2024 election, the "swing" states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona.

In each of these states, Harris and Trump's ratings are nearly equal. The gap between the candidates is significantly smaller than the statistical margin of error. Practically, this means that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will focus substantial attention and a large portion of their advertising budgets on these states, often neglecting others.

The most critical state for candidates is Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes. Next are Michigan and Georgia with 16 each, North Carolina with 15, Arizona with 11, Wisconsin with 10, and Nevada with 6.

Trump and Harris's ratings in "swing" states

Similar to the national trend, in the contentious "swing" states, the ratings of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are almost identical. Any slight advantage one candidate has over the other is significantly less than the statistical margin of error.

The average ratings of Harris and Trump in key states (according to the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight) are as follows:

Arizona:

Trump – 49.1% ; Harris – 46.5%

Wisconsin

Harris – 48.2% ; Trump – 47.4%

Georgia

Trump – 48.6% ; Harris – 47.1%

Michigan

Harris – 47.9% ; Trump – 47.1%

Nevada

Trump – 47.9%; Harris – 47.3% ;

Pennsylvania

Trump – 47.9% ; Harris – 47.7%

North Carolina

Trump – 48.4%; Harris – 47.2%

Previously, RBK-Ukraine reported on the potential influence of the Ukrainian, as well as the Arab and Israeli diasporas, in these swing states.

Additionally, read about how a significant portion of Americans cast their votes not only at polling stations but also remotely.

For more news on the presidential campaign, candidate ratings, and the "hidden challenges" of the electoral system, read the section "U.S. Elections" on RBK-Ukraine.

The material used data from the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight and publicly available information about the U.S. government structure.